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Mike S's avatar

Thanks for this.

Just a comment… although there were around 400 measles deaths each year in the lead up to vaccination, that represents only the officially reported ACUTE measles mortality, and that is almost certainly an undercount. This is because deaths may have been erroneously recorded as due to pneumonia or encephalitis instead of measles; measles diagnoses may have been missed due to inadequate laboratory testing and confirmation; and state-to-federal reporting was inconsistent. These factors may easily have lead to under-reporting of deaths. I did previously have a link to an article estimating the under-reporting at about 30-50% but I can’t find it just now. I will keep looking.

In addition there is reliable evidence the overall observed acute mortality in higher income countries to be between one per 2-5,000 acute measles cases, which when applied to the number of annual cases seen in the 1960s (3 million per year) would imply 600-1,500 deaths each year.

These are only acute measles deaths. A significant number of measles deaths are however due to SSPE, which occurs years after acute infection. The incidence is estimated to be 7-11 per 100,000 acute measles cases (US data), which when applied back to the estimates of over 3 million cases per year prevaccination would account for around 300 deaths per year.

Taken in toto, there would likely have been a conservative toll of >1000 deaths from measles each year prevaccine.

People should bear this in mind, and this would be a reasonable estimate of deaths each year in the US again should vaccination cease as many would wish. Claims that the mortality would be less because of better nutrition and use of vitamin A are pretty hollow, considering how the impact of this would still be rather limited, and the major ongoing disparities the US still sees in health, nutrition and poverty/wealth.

https://www.cdc.gov/surv-manual/php/table-of-contents/chapter-7-measles.html

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