Measles Outbreaks as a Natural Experiment
Kirk Milhoan wants to see what happens when a lot of unvaccinated people get measles.
In what universe would someone think that it was either sane or ethical to be excited about people getting measles in some kind of experiment to just see what happens?
And in what universe would they make that person the chair of the ACIP Committee?
Measles Outbreaks as a Natural Experiment
But tragically, that’s where we are…
And so far, in his natural experiment, since last year in the United States:
there have been over 3,190 cases - almost all unvaccinated
at least 276 people, mostly children, have been hospitalized
and three people have died, including two young children - all unvaccinated
So much for Kirk Milhoan’s theory that measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases have become less deadly…
They haven’t!
Sure, we have better ways to support people who are sick and in the hospital than we did fifty years ago, but without a real cure, those treatments, like ECMO, only get you so far. And more often than not, they don’t get you far enough and these patients still die.
But we don’t need any more real world experience to know this!
Measles kills, even in the era of modern medicine in developed countries.
in Israel, in ongoing outbreak which began just last April and which has since risen to at least 2,900 cases, there have been at least 15 deaths and 988 hospitalizations, including many children who ended up in the ICU.
in Canada, an ongoing multijurisdictional measles outbreak which began in October 2024, had over 5,500 confirmed and probable cases in 2025, 400 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths
in the UK, there have been 4,638 cases of measles since 2024, with seven deaths (one with SSPE), including two children
in the European Union, there were eight measles deaths in 2025 among 7,655 cases, including deaths in France (four), Romania (three) and Netherlands (one)
in the European Union, there were 23 measles deaths in 2024 among 35,212 cases, including deaths in Romania (22) and Ireland (one)
And we know almost all the people getting caught up in these outbreaks, getting measles, are unvaccinated.
We also know how this experiment with wanting people to get measles ends…
How This Experiment Ends…
Do you remember the large outbreaks in the United States during the 1989 to 1991 measles resurgence?
Overall, there were over 55,000 reported cases of measles, with at least 123 deaths, and over 11,000 hospitalizations.
Is that where we are headed?
Sure, a lot has changed since then, including that it is recommended that kids get a second dose of the MMR vaccine and overall, immunization rates are much higher nationally than they were during that resurgence...
But what hasn’t changed?
We still don’t have a cure for measles or any new, special ways to treat kids who are sick with measles.
And while nationwide immunization rates might be higher, the pockets of susceptible people who fuel these types of large outbreaks has grown much larger.
In 1989, the measles outbreaks mainly affected clusters of unvaccinated toddlers and preschoolers in inner-city communities who didn’t have access to vaccines.
Now, in addition to intentionally unvaccinated toddlers and preschoolers, we have intentionally unvaccinated infants, grade schoolers, teens, and adults starting outbreaks!
That’s a recipe for another record year for measles cases, moving us towards the pre-vaccine era, when everyone had measles!
What don’t we know?
We don’t know why people continue trusting anti-vaccine influencers, putting themselves and their kids at risk when they skip or delay getting vaccinated and protected.
More on Measles Outbreaks as a Natural Experiment
‘We almost lost you in the night’ - the life-threatening rise of measles in the UK
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Measles and Rubella monthly report, 2 February, 2026. https://measles-rubella-monthly.ecdc.europa.eu/
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Measles. In: ECDC. Annual Epidemiological Report for 2024. Stockholm: ECDC; 2025 https://measles-rubella-monthly.ecdc.europa.eu/
As measles outbreak rages, public health expert says making vaccines optional ‘boggles the mind’
He obviously wants the same whole bunch of children Dead from measles in the US. Just like his boss Kennedy worked hard to make children die from measles in Samoa.
A question for Dr. Milhoan, who, I believe, is a surgeon. “Dear Dr. Milhoan, what number of unnecessary post-operative complications and deaths should a credentialling committee of a hospital tolerate before suspending your credentials as a surgeon?”