Just How Big Has the Texas Measles Outbreak Gotten
Everything is bigger in Texas...
Few things in Texas are little…
As they say, everything is bigger and better in Texas.
Well, not always better…
The Texas Measles Outbreak
The ongoing Texas measles outbreak has now grown to 309 cases in 14 Texas counties, mostly in the South Plains and Panhandle regions.
Is that a lot?
Well, it is the largest measles outbreak in Texas since at least 1990 - that’s 35 years if you don’t want to do the math.
That’s when epidemics of measles drove rates really high, and there were 10 deaths in the state and over a hundred deaths nationwide.
Just How Big Has the Texas Measles Outbreak Gotten
But we know that the Texas measles outbreak is really even bigger!
No, I’m not talking about all the cases that aren’t getting counted…
I’m talking about all the cases and outbreaks that have been started in other states that almost certainly have links to the Texas outbreak.
Technically, these are all part of one big outbreak.
“Two measles cases in Gaines County, Texas bordering New Mexico’s Lea County raises concern of exposure for area residents traveling across state lines. Texas Health officials are checking for possible exposure among New Mexico residents.”
Southeast New Mexico at risk for measles exposure
That means you should likely add another 42 cases to the Texas outbreak from Eddy and Lea County, New Mexico.
And four cases in Oklahoma.
Is that it?
A multi-state measles outbreak with at least 325 cases, 38 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths?
Not exactly.
There are also all of those cases in Mexico that are linked to the Texas measles outbreak…
Wait, what?!?
There are at least 39 measles cases in Mennonite communities in Chihuahua, Mexico, south of El Paso, that have likely had contact with family in Texas.
That’s right, while some folks were warning about immigrants bringing measles and other diseases into the United States, we have been exporting measles!
So most accurately, it seems like we should be saying that we have an ongoing multi-country, multi-state measles outbreak with at least 364 cases, 38 hospitalizations, and 2 deaths.
When was the last time that happened?
Just How Big Will the Texas Measles Get?
As the ‘Texas’ measles outbreak continues to grow, with no signs that it is slowing down, it’s probably a good time to think about how big this outbreak is going to get.
“We haven’t yet seen signs of the outbreak slowing down,” says William Moss, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland.
Measles is surging in the US: how bad could it get?
Considering that a lot of people use the phrase “no end in sight” when describing the outbreak, you can safely bet that it is going to be a while.
Not only is the Texas measles outbreak not slowing down, but it is still growing - spreading to more and more counties.
Spreading to more and more people who aren’t vaccinated, adding fuel to fire of the outbreak.
“A measles outbreak is like a forest fire throwing out sparks, Moss says. If a spark lands in a state such as Maryland, which has a 97% measles vaccination rate, it will just fizzle out.”
Measles is surging in the US: how bad could it get?
Unfortunately, this outbreak sparked in a community with very low vaccination rates.
A community that has let anti-vaccine influencers steer them away from getting vaccinated and protected, the main thing that would help if you are exposed to measles and the only thing that will stop this outbreak.
And this is happening at a time when vaccine hesitancy is up, vaccination rates are down, global measles rates are rising, and we are essentially being led by someone who thinks getting sick with measles is good for you and getting vaccinated is bad!
That’s a perfect storm for not just a very big outbreak, but a prolonged measles outbreak.
“With its measles outbreak spreading to two additional states, Texas is on track to becoming the cause of a national epidemic if it doesn’t start vaccinating more people, according to public health experts.”
Texas is poised to make measles a nationwide epidemic, public health experts say
A prolonged measles outbreak that will likely mean that we will lose our status of having stopped the endemic spread of measles, which we have had for 25 years.
A prolonged measles outbreak that will mean many more people getting sick, and tragically, could mean more people dying.
A prolonged measles outbreak that could be stopped if more folks would just get vaccinated and protected with the MMR vaccine!
References
2025 Measles Outbreak Guidance. https://www.nmhealth.org/about/erd/ideb/mog/
Southeast New Mexico at risk for measles exposure. https://www.nmhealth.org/news/vaccine/2025/2/?view=2175
Salud registra 43 casos de sarampión y 288 de tosferina en México. https://oem.com.mx/elsoldemexico/mexico/salud-registra-43-casos-de-sarampion-y-288-de-tosferina-en-mexico-22222784
Texas measles outbreak spreads to Chihuahua. https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/measles-chihuahua-texas-outbreak/
Measles is surging in the US: how bad could it get? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00786-w
America Is Botching Measles. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2025/03/america-measles-response-rfk-texas/681967/
Experts give Kennedy low marks as measles outbreak tests him. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5191976-measles-outbreak-kennedy-response/
Texas is poised to make measles a nationwide epidemic, public health experts say. https://www.texastribune.org/2025/03/21/texas-measles-vaccine-new-mexico-oklahoma-us/
Measles vs Autism in 2024 data -https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=1895029988442661190
A liitle girl died from tylenol and sedatives.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9516906/