Is It Statistically Impossible to Have 15 Vaccinated Friends Die Suddenly?
What would you say if someone asked you if it was statistically possible to have 15 vaccinated friends die suddenly?
You would almost certainly think no, that’s not possible!
Mostly because the average person only has about four close friends and maybe up to 150 ‘friends’ who are in their social network.
And that’s exactly what anti-vaccine influencers like Steve Kirsch are hoping when they post these kinds of things…
Is It Statistically Impossible to Have 15 Vaccinated Friends Die Suddenly?
Let’s take a look though.
Right away, you see that that Jay, the guy Steve Kirsch writes about, has an awful lot of so-called ‘direct friends.’ But, among his ‘direct friends’ are his email contacts and LinkedIn contacts, and that’s what help get him up to roughly 15,000 friends.
Now, just because he has spoken to most of these people, that doesn’t necessarily make them friends, does it? Most of us would consider these people associates at best, not friends.
Still, Jay says that 15 of these friends died over a two and a half year period and that they had all had a COVID vaccine.
And Steve Kirsch claims that this “is statistically impossible if the vaccines are as “safe” (as the FDA has claimed).”
So, let’s do some math…
In the United States alone (he doesn’t say that his friends are all in the US though…), nearly 280 million people received a COVID vaccine in the first few years of the pandemic once a vaccine became available. And they were getting their vaccines on most days.
Why is that important?
Well, since nearly everyone got a COVID vaccine, there is a very good chance that if they died, of whatever reason, then they also coincidently had a COVID vaccine.
And then the other important thing to factor is how many people typically die each year…
This of course, depends on their age and health problems, etc., but in general, if his ‘friends’ are all between the ages of 30 and 60 years old, then they have a risk of dying between 0.3 to 0.6% each year.
Let’s just go with the lower estimate…
Since he has 15,000 friends, then you can expect that there might be up to 45 deaths each year!
If that seems high, remember that 15,000 people is about the size of a small town!
And again, since people were getting vaccinated most days, there is a very high probability, just by chance, that they could have died on the same day or just after getting their COVID vaccine.
Remember, at the peak of the pandemic, nearly 2 to 4 million people were getting a COVID vaccine each day.
If you convert their risk of dying to a daily risk, then you would expect that at least 16 people between the ages of 30 and 60 could have died each day in the United States on the very same day they got a COVID vaccine - just by chance!
And that likely explains why four of Jay’s friends died on the same day they received their COVID vaccine.
“Before the COVID shots rolled out, Jay Bonnar has lost a total of one friend in his entire life “unexpectedly.” But in the 2.5 years since the vaccines first rolled out, he’s lost 15 friends; all of whom were COVID vaccinated from Pfizer (which was the vaccine distributed in the area where he lives).
And 4 of those friends died on the same day as their vaccine and 3 of them were under 30. One of the four was 28 and died in his sleep. Physicians will tell you that for a young person to die in their sleep is extremely rate.
The probability this happened by chance is given approximately by poisson.sf(14, .25) which is 5.6e-22, which is statistically impossible. Something caused those deaths. The fact that 4 of the 15 happened on the same day as they were vaccinated and that only Jay’s vaccinated friends died unexpectedly leaves no doubt as to the cause.”
Jay Bonnar’s anecdote is “statistically impossible” if the COVID vaccines are safe
What else?
This shouldn’t make you question the safety of COVID vaccines…
It should lead you to question what they are teaching at MIT though!
And that maybe Jay doesn’t keep track of his ‘friends’ as well as he thinks he does…
Interestingly, although Steve Kirsch says that Jay’s friends who died were previously healthy, even that is not true. One of those friends had even died before!
And one of the others who supposedly died on the same day as having a COVID shot collapsed in his London hotel while traveling on business from California. Does anyone really think he got a COVID shot in London while on a business trip?
This all should lead you to conclude one thing - it is statistically impossible for Steve Kirsch to ever be right about anything related to vaccines!
More on Steve Kirsch is Wrong Again
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Professor Dave & Dr. Wilson vs. Steve Kirsch and Pierre Kory
I had the Chief Psychiatrist of a state prison that happens to also house a small state mental hospital on its grounds tell me upon my arrival that he doesn't trust an inmate without two forms of identification, including one picture form ID issued by the state. Harsh indeed, until my single run in with Mr. Kirsch with my five epidemiology students. We went to his website to investigate his ridiculous "system" of investigating Czech Covid-19 vaccine data, and my five students each took him to task over a specific aspect. He was rude, insulting, and absolutely incapable of accepting self-criticism. This, then, leads me to conclude that I would not trust Mr. Kirsch unless he presented signed affidavits that these individuals were in fact "friends" as we understand the concept, 2) bearing 14 notarized statements that they were vaccinated, and 3) these individuals "sudden deaths" were in any shape or form associated with the Covid-19 vaccine. I believe that it is equally as likely - if we are entertaining foolish notions - that the mere association with Mr. Kirsch are as likely to relate to "sudden death," and let him prove the statistical probability wrong. How low will these championship anti-vaxxers stoop?
I’m not dead!