As measles cases continue and measles outbreaks keep getting bigger, let’s talk about what we might expect next.
“The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) informs that the review of the measles elimination status in the United States and Mexico will take place in November 2026, during the Commission’s regular annual meeting of the Regional Verification Commission for the Elimination of Measles, Rubella, and Congenital Rubella Syndrome (RVC).”
Update on the review of measles elimination status
First, we will soon learn that we have lost measles elimination status and that measles has once again become endemic in the United States. I mean, I guess there is a small chance that we haven’t, like if they have genomic evidence that these are all separate outbreaks, but that is extremely unlikely.
Is a Measles Epidemic Coming Next?
And with a loss of measles elimination status, that would mean that measles is once again endemic in the United States.
Wait, what does that mean exactly?
Well, it means that it is now easier to be exposed to measles than it used to be. So, instead of traveling out of the country or to an area with an outbreak, you might be exposed closer to home and through everyday activities.
It also means more outbreaks that are harder to control.
And it does mean that we could see a measles epidemic in the United States in the next year.
“From 1989 through 1991, in the United States, the incidence of reported measles increased sixfold to ninefold over the median annual incidence (1.3 per 100,000 population) reported from 1981 through 1988. The measles epidemic is a consequence primarily of the failure to vaccinate preschool-aged children at appropriate ages (2); among children aged 16-59 months who developed measles during this resurgence, only 15% had received measles vaccine as recommended (CDC, unpublished data).
During 1989-1991, state health departments reported a provisional total of 55,467 measles cases that resulted in a minimum of 11,251 known hospitalizations, 44,127 hospital days, and 166 suspected measles-related deaths. The resurgence of measles prompted collaborative efforts among federal, state, and local government agencies and private physicians and other private-sector groups to improve overall vaccination coverage among preschool-aged children.”
Public-Sector Vaccination Efforts in Response to the Resurgence of Measles Among Preschool-Aged Children -- United States, 1989-1991
We could soon see a measles epidemic in the United States, just like we did 36 years ago, the last time measles case counts were this high.
Or more many more people can get vaccinated and protected to help stop these outbreaks.
*Insert that one sequel song from The Muppets here*