Can We Expect a Back-To-School Measles Surge?
The Real Truth About Vaccines
It is easy to think that we might see a surge in measles cases as kids go back-to-school this fall.
Why?
With the general rise in measles cases, it will be harder for those kids who are unvaccinated to hide in herd, free-riding on the protection of their classmates who are vaccinated.
And of course, many adults and children will be returning from summer vacations - with measles, starting outbreaks in their daycares, schools, and colleges.
Can We Expect a Back-To-School Measles Surge?
There is one thing that could protect us from such a surge though…
Well, one thing in addition to everyone going and getting vaccinated and protected!
And that other one thing is the simple fact that measles cases tend to drop in the fall - at least they used to when measles was endemic.
Still, I wouldn’t count on that trend helping us much now though…
For example, by 1990, even though measles came surging back in a multi-year outbreak, the seasonal trend was already blunted.
A seasonal trend that has basically disappeared these days.
Now, instead of seasonal trends, monthly case counts are dictated by the start and end of the latest outbreak.
Outbreaks that will likely increase the next few months because:
global case counts are up, and again, many adults and children will be returning from summer vacations with measles, starting outbreaks in their daycares, schools, and colleges
the endemic spread of measles is almost certainly no longer eliminated in the United States, so we will see new outbreaks start as they spread from other states
And of course, we will continue to see outbreaks because anti-vaccine influencers are still scaring people away from getting vaccinated and protected.